The impact of the US tax increase on China

The impact of the US tax increase on China's $300 billion product on the bearing industry

On August 1st, US local time, US President Trump announced through his personal tweet that he will impose an additional 10% tariff on China’s remaining US$300 billion in goods imported on September 1 (this does not include the previous A $25 billion product with a 25% tariff is added). However, Trump said that he will continue to engage in constructive dialogue with China on a comprehensive trade agreement, and the future of China and the United States will be very bright.

Affected by this, the global market once again staged a shock moment, the US stocks rebounded more than 300 points and directly crashed into the water, rushing 600 points from the high level. A50 futures also plummeted nearly 3%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate plummeted by more than 500 points. Risk aversion has suddenly warmed up and gold has skyrocketed. Affected by the external environment, the Asia-Pacific stock market fell collectively.
What is the impact on the bearing industry?

We can clearly draw conclusions by comparing the data provided by some of the Axis Associations:

In 2017, China's bearing import and export trade volume was 8.906 billion US dollars, up 11.48% year-on-year; of which exports earned 5.23 billion US dollars, up 9.8% year-on-year, bearing foreign exchange reached 4.05 billion US dollars, up 9.3% year-on-year; import use sinks 3.68 billion US dollars, year-on-year growth 14%, bearing use of 3.13 billion US dollars, an increase of 13.6%.

In 2018, China's total import and export of bearings was US$9.59 billion, up 7.68% year-on-year, of which exports earned US$5.805 billion, up 11.1% year-on-year, and import use was US$3.785 billion, up 2.9% year-on-year.

It can be seen that in the context of the Sino-US trade war, although some direct products are affected by the import and export of bearings in 2018, the overall impact is limited from the proportion of bearings exported to the United States.

However, the assessment of the impact on the bearing industry can not only consider the direct product export factors, but also from the overall market perspective of the upstream and downstream, which also clearly shows in the data: 2018 national bearing industry completed the main business income of 184.8 billion Yuan (equivalent to 27.9 billion US dollars), an increase of 3.36% over 2017, completed bearing production of 21.5 billion sets, an increase of 2.38% over 2017. It can be seen that there is growth, but it has slowed down noticeably.

This situation is more obvious in the data from January to June of 2019: According to the statistics of 134 (including 120 participating in the national) bearing group and major enterprises in the national bearing industry, from January to June, 120 companies produced a total of 2.603 billion sets of bearings. Compared with the same period of last year, it decreased by 139 million sets, down 5.09% year-on-year; bearing sales volume was 2.688 billion sets, a decrease of 35 million sets compared with the same period of last year, a decrease of 1.28%; bearing export sales volume was 978 million sets, a decrease of 12 million compared with the same period of last year. Set; reduced by 1.23% year-on-year. The downward pressure on the overall industry development is still relatively large.
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